Stop trying to make precise predictions of pupil outcomes
Teachers are often required to predict grades that the pupil 'should' achieve years in the future - either manually or using a software system - but these predictions are rarely accurate enough to make them valid.
Yet, pupils' progress is still measured against their grade predictions in order to:
- Hold teachers to account
- Predict school-level performance
- Inform interventions needed by pupils with the lowest predicted grades, even though there isn't necessarily a common factor as to why these pupils are predicted the lowest grades
Pupils in this lower group will need different forms of support, and your teachers will be able to tailor interventions to pupils' circumstances using their professional judgement rather than relying on a grade prediction. Take a look at our range of articles on using interventions to raise achievement for help.
Ask your teachers to predict a two